Thursday, December 08, 2005

Housing Boom Bombs, Up to 800,000 May Lose Jobs, Homes, Everything


By Elaine Meinel Supkis

I have been very busy running around, getting everyone ready for this deadly winter, trying to help everyone deal with the high cost of energy, didn't post about this nice story. Well, the obvious is going to obviously happen: our Japanese-sponsored property bubble is popping! Japan's economy took off, our will now deflate. They successfully transfered a mountain of bad Japanese property loans to us! Now we get to have a depression/inflation thanks to high fuel costs denominated in dollars, not yen.

From Yahoo:
A sustained decline will hit the U.S. housing market next year, costing the nation as many as 800,000 jobs, according to a new economic report released Wednesday.

The slowdown is likely to last several years, with as many as 500,000 construction jobs and 300,000 financial sector positions lost, the quarterly Anderson Forecast predicted.

"We expect housing to start slowing the economy this quarter or the next," said Edward Leamer, director of the study done at the University of California, Los Angeles.

"Some jobs in manufacturing might well disappear as a result of weakness in housing, but this may be offset by jobs brought home or not lost to foreign competition," he wrote.

The forecast said eight of the last 10 economic recessions were started by housing market slowdowns. Though the coming cooldown will cause a drag on the nation's economy, it will fall short of triggering a recession, the forecast said.
The temporary job boom in trash hauling/sheetrock removing jobs the hurricanes spawned upped the employment figures this fall but most of these jobs fell to illegals who jumped our borders. On the manufacturing front, this fall has been a deadly tsunami of pink slips and as xmas approaches with the same fury and malice as the hurricanes, we see desperation shopping as people pretend January's fuel bills won't bankrupt them. All housing booms end in busts. This is a simple rule. If you look at the value of property, it rises and falls like a mighty ocean. The higher it rises, the nastier the fall.

Some places, because of population rises, keep going up like California. Of course, a really nasty earthquake which is a very reasonable event to expect, will kill this market, too. People will, like in the seventies, try to flee the cold north because heating costs will be killing them. I already see this at work here in my own community. Many homes for sale as the people in them attempt to flee but there are precious few takers right now and prices are now declining relentlessly. Everyone who can wants to bail.

I don't fear winter because I own my own energy heating system, my forest. But the stresses of global warming is taking a toll on my fine trees. Nearly all of the over 100 year old maples are dying rapidly. The saplings and younger maples barely hanging on. This is quite distressing. We all live in the same system and stresses in one sector reemerge elsewhere as some other force. The deep south without the energy bubble is a terribly hard place to live in when summer shines brutally. Most people can't live without airconditioning.

In Doha, the UAE, they built a snow resort that is inside a huge tube where they can go skiing while the temperature outside soars past 120 degrees. The ultimate energy bubble for the sporting youth who own the oil wells we need.

The developing housing crash will be most spectacular since nearly all our buying fenzy of the last four years came from tapping the inflation in home values and spending it on goodies. Since interest rates were well below real inflation, this magic money scheme seemed eternal. Of course, we should have questioned why no society on earth managed to run like this for more than five years. A sober look at history tells us that this scheme always blows up in the faces of the investors and lenders and leads to depressions and revolutions.

Greenspan knows this. Barneke knows this. Heck, even Bush learned this at Harvard! I knew this when I was around 11 years old, listening to adults talk about this stuff. Since so many people are aware of this history, why did they all pretend it doesn't apply to today? Why?

Heh. The key to the criminal mind! Arrest them all. Con artists are regularily sent to prison!

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